There was some good news on the economic front in the U.S. as Retail Sales for September rose by 1.1%, above the 0.6% expected and the highest increase in seven months. Remember good economic news typically benefits Stocks at the expense of Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied), as investors move their money from the safety of Bonds into Stocks to try and take advantage of gains.
And good news here wasn’t the only thing that pressured Bonds and home loan rates last week. The European Central Bank (ECB) said they will announce a plan by early November for addressing the Greek debt crisis and make recapitalizing their banks a priority. As part of this plan, the International Monetary Fund is going to dedicate more resources to help the European debt crisis. A lot of money is needed to make investors feel confident that the debt crisis will be contained, so investors saw this as positive news.
So what does this mean for Bonds and home loan rates? Should the overall present optimistic tone continue, Bonds and home loan rates could face additional pressure. However, if there is pessimistic or uncertain news, investors may return to the safe haven of Bonds, meaning home loan rates could benefit. We did see a little of this trend the week of 10-10-11 when there was word that China's exports came in lower than expectations, which brought concern that global growth could continue to slow.
Either way, the volatility is sure to continue so the most important thing to remember is that now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near historic lows.
article courtesy of Nova Home Loans 10/2011
